Fantasy Football Week 1 DFS guide: Daily notes, injury updates, more for Cowboys-Buccaneers plus all 16 games

Fantasy Football Week 1 DFS guide: Daily game notes, injuries, matchups, more for every player in every game

Frank Stampfl breaks down everything you need to know for Fantasy about every game

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Merry Christmas! Happy Thanksgiving! Whatever your favorite holiday is, today is that day! Football is back. It happens every year but I never get tired of writing those words. You can expect this column every Thursday afternoon and basically it’s just the notes I take each week when making rankings, rundowns for podcasts, and setting my own personal lineups. So we thought why not make it into a piece of content? It makes sense to me. I’m going to be doing it regardless. Each week you can expect snap counts, red zone usage, target shares, and general matchup notes. I’ll usually include one or two of my favorite DFS plays up at the top here as well. Enough chit chat, let’s get into it.

There is a ton of wide receiver value on DraftKings this week but three of the most obvious are Tee Higgins at $4,700, Michael Pittman at $4,100, and Marquez Callaway at $3,400. Of the three, Callaway is by far projected for the highest ownership. Callaway flashed this preseason, going for 8-165-2 on nine targets. With Michael Thomas on the PUP, Jameis Winston needs a WR1 and it looks like Callaway is going to be that guy.

There seems to be a pretty obvious pricing discrepancy on FanDuel in the way of James Robinson who is only $5,900. Obviously pricing was released much earlier than Travis Etienne’s injury but let’s take advantage of that. Robinson is just the 21st highest-priced running back on FanDuel where as he’s the 13th highest on DraftKings. He should be pretty chalky as a result but for good reason in a matchup with the Houston Texans. 

81 degrees and cloudy

Weather

81 degrees and cloudy

G Zack Martin is out with COVID

Injuries

S Jordan Whitehead has been ruled out

Dak Prescott did not play in the preseason because of a shoulder injury… Prescott threw 47-plus times and for at least 450 yards in three of four full games last season… TB gave up the 15th fewest fantasy points to QBs last season

QB

Tom Brady reportedly played through a torn MCL last season and still threw 40 touchdowns, averaging the ninth most Fantasy points among QBs… DAL gave up the 14th mos Fantasy points to QBs last season (faced some pretty awful QBs after their Week 10 bye)

Ezekiel Elliott averaged 22.74 DK points with Prescott last season, 12.1 points without Prescott… Elliott’s 72.4% snap percentage ranked fourth among running backs… 52-plus receptions in three straight seasons… TB allowed the fewest carries and rushing yards but the most receptions to RBs last season (returned all of their starters)

RB

Snap percentage last season (postseason included): Leonard Fournette 49%, Ronald Jones 46%, LeSean McCoy 15%… RZ opportunities: Jones 40, Fournette 38… Fournette and Jones are expected to split early-down work with Giovani Bernard in on third downs as the pass-catching back… DAL allowed the 10th most Fantasy points to RBs, second-most rushing yards, third-fewest receptions

Target share in Weeks 1-4 with Prescott healthy: Amari Cooper 26%, Elliott 15%, CeeDee Lamb 15%, Dalton Schultz 14%, Michael Gallup 12%… RZ targets with Prescott: Cooper 5, Schultz 5, Lamb 4, Elliott 2… Lamb ran 93% of his routes from the slot last season but only 33% from the slot this preseason… TB gave up the 11th most Fantasy points and fifth most receptions to WRs last season

WR

Target share from Week 9 on last season with Antonio Brown (postseason included): Mike Evans 20%, Chris Godwin 20%, Antonio Brown 18%, Leonard Fournette 11%, Rob Gronkowski 11%… RZ targets from Week 9 on: Evans 15, Gronkowski 12, Fournette 8, Brown 7, Godwin 5… DAL alloewd the fourth most Fantasy points to WRs last season and the most touchdowns to the position (27).

Blake Jarwin ran 13 routes this preseason, Schultz ran four… TB gave up the 10th most Fantasy points, seventh most receptions to TEs last season

TE

Gronkowski scored seven touchdowns over his final 11 regular season games and then two more in the Super Bowl… DAL allowed the 10th fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

DOME

Weather

DOME

OLB Brandon Copeland QUES

Injuries

FS Rodney McLeod, G Brandon Brooks, C Landon Dickerson QUES

Jalen Hurts averaged 23.75 FPPG over the final four weeks last season and he was pulled early in Week 17… He had at least 69 rushing yards or a rushing touchdown in each of those games… ATL allowed the second most Fantasy points to QBs last season, six rushing touchdowns to QBs (tied for fifth most) and the defense still projects to be quite bad

QB

Matt Ryan has thrown the ball over 600 times in each of the past three seasons. Will that continue under Arthur Smith? Because of their defense, they might not have a choice… PHI allowed the 16th most Fantasy points to QBs but did little to improve their secondary this offseason

Snaps from Weeks 14-16 with Hurts at quarterback and Miles Sanders healthy: Sanders 81%, Boston Scott 17%… RZ opportunities from Weeks 14-16: Sanders 11, Hurts 3, Jordan Howard 1… ATL allowed the sixth fewest Fantasy points to RBs but also the second fewest rushing attempts

RB

The running back position was a mess last season as evidenced by their snap percentage: Todd Gurley 49%, Brian Hill 29%, Ito Smith 23%… The team will now be relying on Mike Davis and Wayne Gallman… Davis did play over 70% of the snaps in eight games for the Panthers but perhaps that’s why he faded in the second half… PHI allowed the 10th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season and their front seven remains decent

Target share from Weeks 14-16 with Hurts: Jalen Reagor 19%, Zach Ertz 17%, Dallas Goedert 17%, Greg Ward 13%, Sanders 13%… RZ targets during that span: Reagor 3, Ward 2, Ertz 1… Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith ran 18 routes this preseason and all of them came on the outside… Looks like Quez Watkins will start in the slot… ATL allowed the most Fantasy points and yards to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: Calvin Ridley 25%, Julio Jones 20%, Russell Gage 18%, Hayden Hurst 14%… RZ targets: Ridley 22 (fourth in NFL), Hurst 16, Gage 16… Ridley also led the NFL in air yards in 2020… PHI allowed the ninth most Fantasy points and, according to Sharp Football, Darius Slay ranked 115th out of 134 CBs in yards per attempt allowed

Snaps from Weeks 14-16: Ertz 77%, Goedert 77%… Ertz ran a route on 85% of snaps last season, Goedert did so on 82%… ATL allowed the fourth most Fantasy points and second most receptions to TEs last season

TE

The Falcons have 195 unaccounted for targets from last season… Enter Kyle Pitts who is a physical freak and versatile… 49% of his 2020 targets in-line, 24% in the slot, 27% out wide… PHI allowed the 11th most Fantasy points to TEs last season

82 degrees and sunny

Weather

82 degrees and sunny

Jamison Crowder tested positive for COVID but is vaccinated, has a chance to play… Jets lost their starting DE Carl Lawson and their starting LB Jarrad Davis throughout preseason

Injuries

Starting RG John Miller will miss Week 1 because of COVID

Zach Wilson will make his NFL debut after being selected second overall in this year’s draft… He went 15-20 this preseason with 191 yards and two touchdowns (9.6 YPA)… CAR allowed the 13th most Fantasy points to QBs last season

QB

Sam Darnold revenge game! He’s been a disaster in his career (45 TD, 39 INT, 6.6 YPA) but now we get to find out if that was because of Adam Gase… NYJ allowed the third most Fantasy points to QBs last season and their secondary projects as one of the worst in the NFL

Instead of looking at NYJ RB snaps from last season, let’s take a look at what SF did with OC Mike LaFleur last season: Raheem Mostert 42%, Jeff Wilson 41%, Jerick McKinnon 34%… There were four games where one running back played over 70% of the snaps but for the most part it was a RBBC… that will be the case here with Tevin Coleman, Ty Johnson, and Michael Carter… CAR allowed the ninth most Fantasy points and third most receptions to RBs last season

RB

Christian McCaffrey only played in three games last season but was in on 77% of snaps… He averaged 30.1 DK points per game, by far the most among running backs… NYJ allowed the 15th most Fantasy points to RBs last season but teams could throw against them at will and they’ve already lost a few key pieces to their front seven

All new WR corps with Corey Davis, second-rounder Elijah Moore, and Keelan Cole joining Jamison Crowder… Davis saw 10 targets from Wilson on just 13 routes this preseason (Moore didn’t play because of injury)… CAR allowed the 12th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season but did give up a lot of big plays

WR

Target share under OC Joe Brady in 2020: Robby Anderson 26%, D.J. Moore 24%, Curtis Samuel 19%… RZ targets: Anderson 14, Samuel 12, Mike Davis 11, Moore 8… Moore ranked fifth in the NFL in air yards… Anderson is also reunited with Darnold as they played together on the Jets… NYJ allowed the 14th most Fantasy points to WRs last season

I’d expect to see Ryan Griffin and Tyler Kroft play a role for the Jets… Kroft did catch two touchdowns from Wilson in their second preseason game against the Packers… CAR allowed the ninth most Fantasy points and fourth most receptions to TEs

TE

No tight end exceeded 6% target share last season but Dan Arnold and Ian Thomas project to see time on the field… NYJ allowed the most Fantasy points, touchdowns and yards (by far) to TEs last season

DOME

Weather

DOME

RB Rashaad Penny, T Jamarco Jones, G Ethan Pocic QUES

Injuries

T.Y. Hilton on Injured Reserve… WR Parris Campbell, G Quenton Nelson, DE Kemoko Turay, CB Xavier Rhodes, T Eric Fisher QUES

From Weeks 1-9 last season, Russell Wilson was the QB2 in FPPG… From Week 10 on, he was QB15 in FPPG… SEA slowed down the pace and started running the ball more in the second half of the season… IND allowed the 10th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season

QB

Carson Wentz had an awful seson with the Eagles last year, finished with 16 TD:15 INT at just 6.0 YPA… Wentz had foot surgery in early August but is apparently good to go for Week 1… SEA allowed the seventh most Fantasy points to QBs last season

Snaps from Week 12 on with Chris Carson back from injury: Carson 53%, Carlos Hyde 37%… RZ opportunities during that span: Carson 9, Hyde 8… Carson has finished as a top-17 running back in FPPG each of the past three seasons… IND allowed the 12th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snaps from Week 13 on once Jonathan Taylor returned from COVID: Taylor 63%, Nyheim Hines 32%… RZ opportunities during that span: Taylor 22, Hines 14… Taylor was RB2 in FPPG from Week 13 on… SEA allowed the 16th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share last season: Tyler Lockett 25%, DK Metcalf 24%, Carson 12%, Greg Olsen 10%… RZ targets: Lockett 16, Metcalf 16, David Moore 13, Olsen 9, Jacob Hollister 9… Air yard share: Metcalf led the team with 38%, Lockett 29%… IND allowed the 15th most Fantasy points to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: T.Y. Hilton 19%, Nyheim Hines 14%, Michael Pittman 14%, Zach Pascal 13%… RZ targets: Pascal 14, Hines 12, Hilton 10, Pittman 9… Who did Wentz target with the Eagles last season? Travis Fulgham 21%, Zach Ertz 20%, Dallas Goedert 16%… SEA gave up the 6th most Fantasy points to WRs last season

Olsen led Seahawks tight ends with 10% target share last season… It looks like the plan is for Gerald Everett and Will Dissly to split time in some capacity… IND allowed the fourth fewest Fantasy points to TEs

TE

Trey Burton led IND TEs last season with an 11% target share but is no longer with the team… Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox look to split duties… SEA allowed the 13th fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

80 degrees, partly cloudy

Weather

80 degrees, partly cloudy

TE Tyler Conklin, OLB Anthony Barr QUES

Injuries

CB Trae Waynes has been ruled out with a hamstring injury

Kirk Cousins is coming off a career-year where he threw for 35 touchdowns and 8.3 YPA… He was 13th in FPPG at the position in 2020… CIN gave up the 14th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season but lost William Jackson in free agency and Trae Waynes will not play

QB

Joe Burrow was having a solid rookie season before tearing up his knee: 13 TD:5 INT, 6.7 YPA… He was on pace for 646 pass attempts over 16-games… Burrow threw just one pass in the Bengals’ final preseason game… MIN allowed the 13th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and then added CB Patrick Peterson and S Xavier Woods this offseason

Snap percentage last season: Dalvin Cook 71%, Alexander Mattison 27%… Cook’s 64 RZ carries were tied for second in the NFL… Cook finished as the RB2 in FPPG behind only McCaffrey… CIN allowed the eighth most Fantasy points and fourth most rushing yards to RBs last season

RB

Snaps percentage from Weeks 1-6 with Joe Mixon healthy: Mixon 65%, Giovani Bernard 32%… RZ opportunities in Weeks 1-6: Mixon 21, Bernard 6… Bernard is no longer with the team, which means Mixon should see added playing time and touches… MIN allowed the sixth most Fantasy points and third most rushing touchdowns to RBs last season but their front seven should be better

2020 target share: Justin Jefferson 26%, Adam Thielen 24%, Cook 13%, Irv Smith Jr. 12%… Thielen led MIN with 20 RZ targets (sixth most in the NFL), Jefferson was tied for second on the team with 12… Tight concentration of targets with the Vikings… CIN allowed the 16th most Fantasy points to WRs last season but again, secondary is a little beat up

WR

Target share from Weeks 1-10 with Burrow: Tyler Boyd 21%, A.J. Green 19%, Tee Higgins 17%, Mixon 11%… RZ targets during that span: Boyd 9, Drew Sample 9, Bernard 8, Green 7… Green has been replaced by rookie first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase… MIN allowed the fifth most Fantasy points and second most receiving touchdowns to WRs last season but again, added pieces to their secondary

Kyle Rudolph is gone. Irv Smith Jr. is out for the season. That leaves Tyler Conklin and newly-acquired Chris Herndon to pick up the slack… It could take some time for Herndon to get acclimated, which could open up opportunities for Conklin… CIN allowed the seventh most Fantasy points and third most receiving yards to TEs last season

TE

C.J. Uzomah should start and could be a factor in the red zone… Drew Sample was tied for the most red zone targets on the team while Burrow was healthy… Uzomah also had at least five targets in each game before getting hurt… MIN allowed the 12th fewest Fantasy points to TEs

DOME

Weather

DOME

DT Kevin Givens, DT Javon Kinlaw, DB Emmanuel Moseley QUES

Injuries

DT Nick Williams, T Taylor Decker, DT Levi Onwuzurike, DE Michael Brockers, CB AJ Parker QUES

We’re all but guaranteed Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starter in Week 1 but Kyle Shanahan mentioned a QB “rotation” with Trey Lance… Garoppolo played in six games last season: 7 TD:5 INT, 7.8 YPA… DET allowed the most Fantasy points to QBs last season and their secondary still projects to be low-end unit

QB

Jared Goff gets a fresh start with the Lions.. His last two season were subpar with the Rams: 42 TD:29 INT at 7.3 YPA… He’s got a great offensive line, two pass-catching running backs, a strong tight end, but wide receiver talent is lacking… SF allowed the eighth fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season

Snap percentage last season: Raheem Mostert 42%, Jeff Wilson 41%, Jerick McKinnon 34%… There were four games where one running back played over 70% of the snaps but for the most part it was a RBBC… They’ll begin the season with Mostert, Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty leading that group… Per The Athletic: “Sermon is in line to be Shanahan’s early-down “tenderizer,” while Mostert remains a lethal speed threat”… DET allowed the most Fantasy points and total TDs (29) to RBs last season

RB

Snap percentage last season: D’Andre Swift 47%, Adrian Peterson 30%, Kerryon Johnson 28%… RZ opportunities: Peterson 36, Swift 28… Anthony Lynn is now the OC for the Lions, which gives us hope that Swift can be that Austin Ekeler type back with Jamaal Williams as his 1B… Williams could be in for large role early in the season as Swift battled a groin injury most of August… SF allowed the eighth fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season and the Lions will likely be playing from behind

Target share last season: George Kittle 24%, Brandon Aiyuk 23%, Deebo Samuel 18%… RZ targets: Aiyuk 14, Kendrick Bourne 11 (now with NE), Kyle Juszczyk 9… Hard to gauge since Kittle and Samuel missed so much time… Aiyuk led the team with 30% air yard share… DET allowed the third most Fantasy points to WRs last season and 2020 first round pick Jeff Okudah was a big letdown

WR

The Lions WR group is completely new with Tyrell Wiliams, Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus and rookie Amon-Ra St.Brown all expected to have a role… Personally, I believe Williams and St. Brown will emerge from the group… 22 of 25 routes came from the slot for St. Brown during the preseason… We know Goff loved Cooper Kupp in the slot… SF allowed the 15th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

When healthy, Kittle should contend for the team lead in target share… Finished third in FPPG among TEs last season behind Travis Kelce and Darren Waller… DET allowed the 16th most Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

The Lions have 360 unaccounted for targets from last season, the most in the NFL… We’ve seen stretches where Jared Goff made Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett extremely Fantasy viable… That will be T.J. Hockenson if he can stay healthy… Per The Athletic: “Goff, quickly, has developed extreme trust in him (Hockenson)”

82 degrees and clear

Weather

82 degrees and clear

TE Darrell Daniels QUES

Injuries

WR A.J. Brown, LB David Long, DB Chris Jackson QUES

Over the first nine games last season, Kyler Murray was the QB1 and on pace for 1,074 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns… In six games following a shoulder injury, he was just the QB10… TEN allowed the fifth most Fantasy points and the second most passing touchdowns (36) to QBs last season… They also lost Adoree’ Jackson, Malcolm Butler, and Desmond King this offseason

QB

In 28 games with the Titans, Ryan Tannehill has 55 TD:13 INT and finished as the QB11 in FPPG last season… Former Titans OC Arthur Smith is no longer with the team but they promoted Todd Downing from within and acquired Julio Jones in the offseason… ARI allowed the 15th most Fantasy points to QBs last season and moved on from Patrick Peterson/Dre Kirkpatrick in the secondary

Snap percentage from Weeks 10-17 with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds active: Drake 54%, Edmonds 46%… RZ opportunities during that span: Drake 35, Edmonds 12… James Conner now replaces the Drake role but I think we see a more even split, maybe even one that favors Edmonds slightly… TEN allowed the seventh most Fantasy points to RBs thanks to 20 total touchdowns

RB

Snap percentage last season: Derrick Henry 67%, Jeremy McNichols 24%… Henry led the NFL with 65 RZ carries… The Big Dog has amassed 827 total touches over the last two seasons (postseason included). Will it catch up to him at 27 years old? … ARI allowed the 14th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season and boast a front seven that ranks in the top-half of the NFL

Target share last season: DeAndre Hopkins 29% (second in the NFL), Christian Kirk 16%, Larry Fitzgerald 16%, Edmonds 13%… RZ targets: Hopkins 11, Kirk 8, Edmonds 5… The Cardinals replaced Fitzgerald with A.J. Green and added Rondale Moore in the draft… Moore ran 31 of 32 routes from the slot this preseason… TEN allowed the second most Fantasy points, second most receptions, and third most receiving touchdowns to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: A.J. Brown 26%, Corey Davis 23%, Jonnu Smith 15%, Adam Humphries 15% (only seven games played)… RZ targets: Smith 18, Brown 12, Davis 8, Firkser 7… If you had any doubt, Julio Jones ranked fifth in yards per route run among pass catchers with at least 60 targets last season… ARI allowed the 14th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

No tight end on the Cardinals exceeded an 8% target share last season… Maxx Williams sits atop the depth chart heading into Week 1… TEN allowed the 13th most Fantasy points to TEs last season but there’s nothing to see here

TE

Jonnu Smith had a 15% target share and led the Titans with 18 RZ targets last season… However, Smith is no longer with the Titans… Instead, Geoff Swaim and Anthony Firkser project as the starters… ARI allowed the sixth fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

85 degrees and humid

Weather

85 degrees and humid

CB Tre Herndon has been ruled out for Week 1

Injuries

DE Whitney Mercilus, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, DT Maliek Collins, and CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. QUES

Trevor Lawrence will make his NFL debut after throwing 90 TD:17 INT in three years at Clemson… Lawrence went 31-44 for 323 yards, 2 TD:0 INT, 7.3 YPA in the preseason… HOU allowed the ninth most Fantasy points and 30 passing touchdowns to QBs last season and just traded away Bradley Roby

QB

Tyrod Taylor is back! The last time we saw him with a legitimate starting role was back in 2017 when he threw 14 TD:4 INT at 6.7 YPA but averaged 28.5 rushing yards per game… JAC allowed the fourth most Fantasy points to QBs last season but did add Shaquill Griffin in free agency

Snap percentage last season: James Robinson 70% (7th highest in the NFL), Dare Ogunbowale 20%… RZ opportunities: Robinson 37, Chris Thompson 5… Robinson finished as the RB7 in FPPG last season mainly due to sheer volume. Carlos Hyde will get some work for reasons I cannot comprehend… HOU allowed the second most Fantasy points but the most rushing yards and rushing touchdowns to RBs last season

RB

David Johnson played on 74% of the Texans’ offensive snaps last season but the team added both Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram in free agency… Johnson led HOU with 34 RZ opportunities last season… You’re looking at a three-headed RBBC on one of the worst teams in football… JAC allowed the third most Fantasy points and third most rushing yards to RBs last season

Target share last season: DJ Chark 20%, Laviska Shenault 15%, Keelan Cole 15%, Robinson 12%, Chris conley 11%, Tyler Eifert 11%… RZ targets: Chark 12, Eifert 11, Shenault 11, Cole 10… Shenault ran 25 of 37 routes from the slot during the preseason… Marvin Jones comes over from DET and finished as the WR25 in FPPG last season… HOU allowed the seventh most Fantasy points to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: Brandin Cooks 24%, Will Fuller 21%, Keke Coutee 15%, Randall Cobb 15%… RZ targets: David Johnson 14, Cooks 11, Coutee 11… Cooks finished as the WR17 in FPPG last season but that was with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback… The team added Chris Conley, Anthony Miller and rookie Nico Collins this offseason… JAC allowed the 13th most Fantasy points to WRs but improved their secondary

Tyler Eifert is no longer on the team but the team is likely to split duties with James O’Shaughnessy and Chris Manhertz… The Jaguars are not expected to feature either one much in this offense… HOU allowed the 15th fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Jordan Akins finished with a 12% target share and 8 RZ targets last season… Tyrod Taylor did target Charles Clay on 20% of his passes back in 2017… JAC allowed the fifth most Fantasy points to TEs last season

73 degrees with 12 MPH winds

Weather

73 degrees with 12 MPH winds

DE Tyson Alualu, G Kendrick Green, LB Alex Highsmith QUES

Injuries

WR Emmanuel Sanders, DT Star Lotulelei, CB Taron Johnson QUES

While Ben Roethlisberger threw for 33 TD:10 INT, he didn’t look right coming off elbow surgery, averaging just 6.3 YPA… He says he feels better than last season and he did look strong during preseason (13.7 YPA but only 10 pass attempts)…BUF allowed the 16th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season but boast one of the best secondaries in the game

QB

Josh Allen went from a 59% completion rate in 2019 to 69% in 2020, throwing for 37 TD:10 INT and finishing as the QB1 overall… It also helps that he at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of his first three seasons… PIT allowed the second fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and maintain a strong secondary

With Najee Harris now on the Steelers, let’s ignore last season and focus on the last time they had a (mostly) healthy workhorse… Back in 2018, James Conner finished as the RB7 in FPPG, playing 79% of the snaps with a 13% target share… I think we can expect something similar from Harris who handled 294 touches at Alabama last season… BUF allowed the 12th most Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snap percentage last season: Devin Singletary 57%, Zack Moss 45%… Despite playing three less games, Moss led BUF with 31 RZ opportunities to just 28 for Devin Singletary… It doesn’t help that Josh Allen is effectively their goal-line back, finishing with 26 RZ opportunities himself… PIT allowed the third fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share last season: Diontae Johnson 23%, JuJu Smith-Schuster 20%, Chase Claypool 17%, Eric Ebron 15%… RZ targets: Smith-Schuster 18, Ebron 18, Claypool 13, Johnson 11… Air yard share: Claypool 31%, Johnson 25%, Smith-Shuster 15%… BUF allowed the fourth fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season and both Johnson/Claypool should see some Tre’Davious White in this game

WR

Target share last season: Stefon Diggs 29% (third in the NFL), Cole Beasley 20%, John Brown 17% (only nine games), Gabriel Davis 11%… RZ targets: Diggs 15, Davis 12, Dawson Knox 9, Cole Beasley 9… Diggs finished as the WR3 in FPPG while Beasley finished WR33… Now Emmanuel Sanders joins the mix… PIT allowed the 10th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

Last season Eric Ebron saw a 15% target share and was tied for the team lead with 18 RZ targets… The Steelers drafted Pat Freiermuth in the second round of this year’s draft and he could steal some looks from Ebron… BUF allowed the sixth most Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Dawson Knox led BUF TEs with a 10% target share and was third on the team with nine RZ targets… The Bills run a bunch of 3-WR and 4-WR sets, which limits production for any tight end on the roster… PIT allowed the second fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

82 degrees and clear

Weather

82 degrees and clear

RB Austin Ekeler, DB Trey Marshall QUES

Injuries

WR Curtis Samuel QUES

Justin Herbert was awesome as a rookie, breaking the rookie passing touchdown record (31) while averaging 7.3 YPA… His offensive line is much improved though they’re a little banged up heading into Week 1… WAS allowed the third fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and their defense projects as one of the best in the NFL

QB

The magic is back! Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter in Washington… He had 10 TD:7 INT over his first six games with Miami before ceding to Tua Tagovailoa… LAC allowed the 12th most Fantasy points to QBs last season… A lot will depend if Derwin James can finally stay healthy

Snap percentage from Weeks 12-16 with Austin Ekeler back healthy: Ekeler 64%, Kalen Ballage 32%… RZ opportunities during that stretch: Ekeler 15, Ballage 3… Ekeler averaged 8.2 targets per game during those five weeks… WAS allowed the second fewest Fantasy points and fourth fewest receptions to running backs last season

RB

Snap percentage in Weeks 1-12 before Antonio Gibson missed time: J.D. McKissic 54%, Gibson 46%… RZ opportunities from Weeks 1-12: Gibson 30, McKissic 17… The big question heading into Week 1 is whether Gibson will be used on third downs and as a pass catcher… LAC allowed the 15th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share from Weeks 2-17 with Herbert: Keenan Allen 27%, Austn Ekeler 19%, Hunter Henry 16%, Mike Williams 14%… RZ targets from Week 2 on: Allen 16, Henry 13, Williams 9, Ekeler 9… Williams dealt with a hip flexor injury throughout the preseason but is on track to play in Week 1… WAS allowed the second fewest Fantasy points and receiving touchdowns to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: Terry McLaurin 26%, McKissic 19%, Logan Thomas 19% with nobody else over 10% but now Curtis Samuel joins the team… RZ targets: Thomas 18, McLaurin 13, McKissic 12… Fitzpatrick target share in Weeks 1-6 with MIA last season: DeVante Parker 20%, Mike Gesicki 15%, Myles Gaskin 15%… LAC allowed the seventh fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

Jared Cook will start but Donald Parham is a big target that could be used in specific situations… Hunter Henry did see 16% of the target share from Herbert last season so there’s a chance a decent tight end streamer emerges here… WAS allowed the eighth fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Again, Thomas accounted for a 19% target share and 18 RZ targets, both top-six among TEs in the NFL… LAC allowed the 12th most Fantasy points to TEs, including 10 touchdowns last season

85 degrees, 12 MPH winds

Weather

85 degrees, 12 MPH winds

OT David Bakhtiari on the PUP… OLB Za’Darius Smith, DT Tyler Lancaster, DB Vernon Scott QUES

Injuries

Michael Thomas on the PUP, Wil Lutz CB Brian Pool on injured reserve… CB Ken Crawley QUES

Aaron Rodgers won his third MVP last season, with 48 TD:5 INT at 8.2 YPA… The offensive line took a hit losing Corey Linsley in free agency and Bakhtiari on the PUP… NO allowed the sixth fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season

QB

Jameis Winston won the Saints’ starting job following a strong preseason: 16-22 for 219 yards, 3 TD:1 INT, 10 YPA… GB allowed the fourth fewest Fantasy points to QBs and boast one of the better secondaries in the NFL

Snap percentage from Week 9 on with Aaron Jones back healthy: Jones 62%, Jamaal Williams 35%… RZ opportunites from Week 9 on: Jones 24, Williams 11… Williams is now in Detroit, which means A.J. Dillon steps up as the RB2… Jones finished as the RB5 in FPPG in PPR… NO allowed the fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snap percentage last season: Alvin Kamara 65%, Latavius Murray 36%… RZ opportunities: Kamara 61, Murray 28… The biggest question will be Kamara’s target share sans Drew Brees… Kamara was up over 19% target share in each of the past four seasons with Brees at quarterback… GB allowed the fifth most Fantasy points and third most receiving yards to RBs last season

Davante Adams was ridiculous last season, averaging 25.7 FPPG in PPR, by far the most among wide receivers… Target share last season: Adams 34% (led the NFL), Allen Lazard 15%, Jones 15%, Marquez Valdes-Scanting 13%, Robert Tonyan 12%… RZ targets: Adams 27 (led the NFL), Tonyan 11, Jones 10… NO allowed the 16th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season and Marshon Lattimore took a big step back

WR

Let’s take a look back at TB target share back in 2019 with Jameis Winston as their quarterback: Mike Evans 24%, Chris Godwin 22%, Breshad Perriman 13%, OJ Howard 10%… Winston seemed to have a connection with Marquez Callaway in the preseason as Callaway went for 8-165-2 receiving on nine targets… GB allowed the fifth fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season and have one of the game’s best cornerbacks in Jaire Alexander

Robert Tonyan saw 12% of the target share and was second on the team with 11 RZ targets… He figures to be used in that area of the field again… NO allowed the 14th most Fantasy points to TEs thanks to nine touchdowns

TE

Adam Trautman could be limited in Week 1, which could open up playing time for WR-converted-TE Juwan Johnson… GB allowed the third fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

92 degrees with 11 MPH winds

Weather

92 degrees with 11 MPH winds

C JC Tretter, LB Jadeveon Clowney, WR Odell Beckham, WR Rashard Higgins, CB Troy Hill, CB GreedyWilliams, DB Ronnie Harrison, S Grant Delpit QUES

Injuries

S Tyrann Mathieu is in COVID protocol… WR Mecole Hardman, NT Derrick Nnadi, DE Frank Clark QUES

Baker Mayfield was fine last season, better for real-life football than for Fantasy… He finished with 26 TD:8 INT and 7.3 YPA… KC allowed the 11th most Fantasy points to QBs last season

QB

Patrick Mahomes finished as the QB3 in FPPG, tossing 38 TD:10 INT while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt… CLE allowed the eighth most Fantasy points to QBs but dealt with a lot of injuries to their secondary last season

Snaps from Week 10 on once Nick Chubb returned: Chubb 52%, Kareem Hunt 48%… RZ opportunities during that span: Chubb 28, Hunt 18… Chubb finished RB9 in FPPG last season while Hunt finished RB23… KC allowed the 11th most Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snap percentage from Weeks 1-12 before Clyde Edwards-Helaire got hurt: Edwards-Helaire 60%, Le’Veon Bell 29%, Darrel Williams 26%… RZ opportunities during that stretch: Edwards-Helaire 32, Bell 6, Williams 4… CEH was RB18 in FPPG through Week 12… CLE allowed the seventh fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share from Weeks 1-6 with Odell Beckham healthy: Beckham 25%, Jarvis Landry 20%, Austin Hooper 20%, Hunt 11%… RZ targets during that span: Beckham 6, Hunt 5, Hooper 2, Landry 2… Air yard share: Beckham 40%, Landry 22%… Beckham was the WR27 in FPPG while healthy… KC allowed the third fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season but lost cornerback Bashard Breeland

WR

Target share last season: Travis Kelce 25%, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins 14% (10 games), Edwards-Helaire 11%, Mecole Hardman 10%… RZ targets: Kelce 23, Hill 19, Watkins 8… Hill finished as the WR2 in FPPG… Air yard share: Hill 35%, Kelce 26%… CLE allowed the eighth most Fantasy points to WRs last season but again, the secondary dealt with a ton of injuries

Austin Hooper was third on the Browns with a 19% target share last season and second on the team with nine RZ targets… KC allowed the eighth most Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Travis Kelce led KC with a 25% target share and 23 RZ targets… He led all tight ends in yards (1,416) and was tied for first in touchdowns (11), finishing as the TE1… CLE allowed the third most Fantasy points to TEs last season

81 degrees with 10 MPH winds

Weather

81 degrees with 10 MPH winds

OT Austin Jackson OUT with COVID… WR Preston Williams and OT Liam Eichenberg QUES

Injuries

CB Stephon Gilmore is on the reserve/PUP list… WR Nelson Agholor, CB Jalen Mills, OT Yodny Cajuste QUES

It was a decent rookie season for Tua Tagovailoa who threw for 11 TD:5 INT at 6.3 YPA in 10 games… He also added 10.9 rushing yards per game and three rushing touchdowns… NE allowed the seventh fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season but will be without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore

QB

Mac Jones won the Patriots’ starting quarterback job this preseason by completing 36-52 attempts for 389 yards, one touchdown, and 7.5 YPA… MIA allowed the 12th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and boast a top-five secondary in the NFL

Snaps in Weeks 1-8 with Myles Gaskin healthy: Gaskin 69%, Matt Breida 23%… RZ opportunities during that span: Gaskin 30, Jordan Howard 8… The Dolphins added Malcolm Brown and talked early in the preseason about a full-blown RBBC… As camp progressed, Gaskin seems to have separated himself from the pack… NE allowed the 16th most Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snaps from Weeks 4-14 with Damien Harris healthy: Harris 39%, James White 39%, Rex Burkhead 37% (seven games), Sony Michel 21% (three games)… RZ opportunities during that stretch: Cam Newton 27, Harris 22, Burkhead 10… Newton also led the team with 19 carries inside-the-five while no Patriots running back had more than three… MIA allowed the 10th fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share from Week 13-17 once Tua Tagovailoa returned as the starter: Mike Gesicki 19%, Lynn Bowden Jr. 17%, DeVante Parker 17%, Jakeem Grant 14%… RZ targets during that span: Parker 8, Gesicki 6, Isaiah Ford 3… The Dolphins added Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle this offseason… Waddle ran 17 of 22 routes in the slot during preseason… NE allowed the ninth fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season but will be without Stephon Gilmore

WR

Target share from last season: Jakobi Meyers 23%, Damiere Byrd 18%, James White 18%, N’Keal Harry 16%… RZ targets: Harry 10, White 6, Burkhead 6, Meyers 5… The Patriots added Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and two tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry… Meyers ran 17 of 25 routes in the slot this preseason… MIA allowed the 10th most Fantasy points to WRs but that’s not indicative of how good their secondary is

Gesicki led MIA with a 19% target share and was second with six RZ targets from weeks 13-17 with Tagovailoa… Week 1 could be a better week for him without Will Fuller who is suspended… NE allowed the fifth fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

It’s clear the Patriots want to get more out of their tight ends as they brought in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry who finished TE12 and 13, respectively, in FPPG last season… MIA allowed the seventh fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

83 and clear, 10 MPH winds

Weather

83 and clear, 10 MPH winds

TE Noah Fant, OLB Bradley Chubb QUES

Injuries

RB Saquon Barkley, WR Kenny Golladay, CB Adoree’ Jackson, TE Evan Engram, TE Kyle Rudolph, WR Kadarius Toney, OT Andrew Thomas, CB Josh Jackson, DT Danny Shelton, LB Justin Hilliard QUES

Teddy Bridgewater won the Broncos’ starting job following a strong preseason: 22-30 for 241 yards, 3 TD: 0 INT on 8 YPA… He had a decent year with the Panthers, was just unlucky with TD%… NYG allowed the fifth fewest Fantasy points to QBs and have a strong secondary once again

QB

Daniel Jones is coming off a truly awful season with 11 TD:10 INT, 6.6 YPA over 14 games… Jones played in one preseason game, completing 17-22 passes for 135 yards, 1 TD:1 INT… DEN allowed the 10th most Fantasy points to QBs last season but completely revamped their secondary with Ronald Darby, Kyle Fuller, and rookie Patrick Surtain

Snap percentage from Week 7 on once Melvin Gordon returned: Gordon 59%, Phillip Lindsay 36%, Royce Freeman 14%… RZ opportunities from Week 7 on: Gordon 23, Lindsay 4… After cutting Freeman, the Broncos will roll with Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams in a likely 60-40 split… NYG allowed the 14th most Fantasy points and fifth most receptions to RBs last season

RB

The last time we saw Saquon Barkley in extended playing time was 2019 when he played 83% of the snaps for NYG and was the RB7 in FPPG in PPR… He’s now coming back from a torn ACL he suffered in Week 2 last season and could be limited early on… DEN allowed the 13th most Fantasy points to RBs mostly due to 14 rushing TDs from the position

Target share last season: Jerry Jeudy 21%, Noah Fant 18%, Tim Patrick 16%, K.J. Hamler 13%… RZ targets: Fant 12, Patrick 10, Jeudy 8… Now Courtland Sutton returns to the mix after suffering a torn ACL in Week 2 last season… Sutton led DEN with 26% target share in 2019… NYG allowed the 11th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: Sterling Shepard 23%, Evan Engram 22%, Darius Slayton 19%, Golden Tate 14%… RZ targets: Engram 13, Shepard 11, Slayton 8… Tate was replaced by Kenny Golladay, which means 3-WR sets should be Golladay-Shepard-Slayton… DEN allowed the 13th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season and maybe have the most well-balanced secondary in the game

Noah Fant saw an 18% target share and led the team with 12 RZ targets last season… Bridgewater didn’t use the tight end much with the Panthers but he didn’t have one as talented as Fant… NYG allowed the 11th fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Evan Engram saw a 22% target share and led the team with 13 RZ targets… He’s currently dealing with a calf injury and also has to fend off Kyle Rudolph in the red zone… DEN allowed the 15th most Fantasy points to TEs last season

DOME

Weather

DOME

NT Eddie Goldman, OLB Khalil Mack, WR Darnell Mooney, LB Robert Quinn QUES

Injuries

DT A’Shawn Robinson QUES

Andy Dalton is back… for now. In 11 games with the Cowboys last season, Dalton threw 14 TD:8 INT at 6.5 yards per attempt… He’ll have to fend off rookie Justin Fields who completed 30-49 attempts for 276 yards and two touchowns, adding 92 rushing yards on the ground this preseason… LAR allowed the fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and they still boast a top-five secondary

QB

Matthew Stafford played through injury last year, throwing 26 TD:10 INT at 7.7 yards per attempt… He finished just QB23 in FPPG last season but was the QB3 back in 2019… CHI allowed the 11th fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season but they lost Kyle Fuller in free agency and did not replace him adequately

David Montgomery’s usage was ridiculous once Tarik Cohen got hurt last season: 80% snaps, 13% target share, and 55 RZ opportunities (second most in the NFL during that span)… Montgomery was the RB6 in FPPG from Week 4 on and yes, he benefited from a bunch of great matchups… LAR allowed the fifth fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Cam Akers looked to be a bonafide RB1 and then tore his Achilles this summer… Snaps from Week 12 on (postseason included): Akers 66%, Malcolm Brown 28%… The team is now likely to use a two-headed attack featuring Darrell Henderson and newly acquired Sony Michel… Henderson was the RB25 in FPPG from Weeks 2-7 last season… CHI allowed the ninth fewest Fantasy points to RBs last season

Target share last season: Allen Robinson 25%, Darnell Mooney 16%, Anthony Miller 13% (no longer with the team), Jimmy Graham 13%… RZ targets: Graham 21, Robinson 19, Montgomery 12… Robinson has 150-plus targets in back-to-back seasons… LAR allowed the fewest Fantasy points to WRs and Robinson will unfortunately see a good amount of Jalen Ramsey in this game

WR

Target share last season: Cooper Kupp 24%, Robert Woods 23%, Josh Reynolds 14%, Tyler Higbee 11%, Gerald Everett 11%… RZ targets: Kupp 13, Woods 12, Higbee 6… The Rams lost Reynolds but signed DeSean Jackson and drafted Tutu Atwell… CHI allowed the eighth fewest Fantasy points to WRs but this secondary is not what it has been the past few seasons

While Graham did have a big role last season, it seemed to dwindle in the second half… Snaps from Week 10 on: Cole Kmet 85%, Graham 47%… Target share: Kmet 15%, Graham 9%… RZ targets: Graham 8, Kmet 4… LAR allowed the ninth fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

We saw Tyler Higbee’s upside without Gerald Everett when he posted 100 yards or a touchdown in each of the final five games in 2019… Higbee was the TE1 overall during that stretch… CHI allowed the second most Fantasy points to TEs last season

DOME

Weather

DOME

RB J.K. Dobbins, WR Rashod Bateman, WR Miles Boykin are all on Injured Reserve and both RB Gus Edwards and CB Marcus Peters suffered potentially serious knee injuries during Thursday’s practice … TE Nick Boyle DOUBTFUL

Injuries

RB Josh Jacobs, DE Clelin Ferrell, CB Damon Arnette, ILB Darron Lee, MLB Denzel Perryman, OG Richie Incognito QUES

Lamar Jackson started slow last season as the QB15 in FPPG from Weeks 1-5… From Week 6 on, he was the QB3 in FPPG… During those 10 games, he averaged 76.7 rushing yards per game with six total rushing touchdowns… LV allowed the sixth most Fantasy points to QBs last season and have the worst secondary in football, according to Sharp Football

QB

According to passer rating and QBR, Derek Carr had a career-year in 2020, tossing 27 TD:9 INT at 7.9 YPA… Like Baker Mayfield, Carr is better for real-life football than he is for Fantasy… BAL allowed the ninth fewest Fantasy points to QBs last season and boast one of the most complete secondaries in the NFL

Snap percentage last season: J.K. Dobbins 47%, Gus Edwards 34%, Mark Ingram 23%… RZ opportunities: Lamar Jackson 32, Dobbins 29, Edwards 27… With Dobbins out for the season and Mark Ingram now in Houston, the Ravens planned to  run a committee featuring Edwards and Ty’Son Williams… With Edwards likely out, recently signed Le’Veon Bell could make his debut sooner than expected….LV allowed the fourth most Fantasy points to RBs last season

RB

Snap percentage last season: Josh Jacobs 61%, Devontae Booker 22%, Jalen Richard 21%… Jacobs’ 67 RZ opportunities actually led the NFL… The Raiders added Kenyan Drake this offseason who handled 264 touches with the Cardinals and finished RB26 in FPPG last season… BAL allowed the 13th fewest Fantasy points to RBs

Target share last season: Marquise Brown 25%, Mark Andrews 25%, Willie Snead 14%… RZ targets: Andrews 17, Brown 11, Snead 8… Brown saw nearly 39% of is team’s air yards last season, the eighth highest in the NFL… The Ravens also added veteran Sammy Watkins this offseason who will offer an upgrade over Snead… LV allowed the 12th fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

WR

Target share last season: Darren Waller 28%, Nelson Agholor 16%, Hunter Renfrow 15%, Henry Ruggs 10%… RZ targets: Waller 24, Agholor 12, Renfrow 8… Agholor left in free agency but there has been growing hype surrounding second-year WR Bryan Edwards… BAL allowed the sixth fewest Fantasy points to WRs last season

Andrews’s 25% target share ranked third among all tight ends last season… His 18 RZ targets were tied for fourth-most at the position… LV allowed the 16th fewest Fantasy points to TEs last season

TE

Darren Waller led all TEs with a 28% target share and 24 RZ targets, finishing as the TE2 in FPPG behind only Travis Kelce… BAL allowed the 14th fewest Fantasy points ot TEs last season

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