NFL Week 6 odds, picks: Browns shock undefeated Cardinals, winless Jaguars stun Dolphins in London

If I learned one thing over the weekend, it’s that we might need a new name for the sport of football because we can’t keep calling it football anymore after what happened on Sunday. 

There’s only one position on the field that actually uses their feet and they forgot how to use them in Week 5: Kickers combined to miss 14 field goals AND 13 extra points, which is the most missed extra points ever during a single week in the Super Bowl era. 

I should have known it was going to be a bad week for kickers when the Falcons forgot to bring their kicking net to London. 

I mean, if that’s not a sign of bad things to come, I don’t know what is. As everyone knows, there are two things you can never forget when you’re traveling to London: Your passport and your kicking net. 

Speaking of London, the Jaguars and Dolphins will be playing there this week and I feel like there’s about a 50% chance that the Jags are going to “forget” to bring Urban Meyer home. The good news for Meyer is that another NFL coaching job just opened up so he can take that one if he gets fired. 

Alright, I’m going to stop talking about Urban Meyer possibly being left in London so we can get to the picks. 

Actually, before we get to the picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here. If you don’t click over, I won’t be offended. However, I will be offended if you don’t sign up for CBSSports.com’s NFL newsletter.  

If you do sign up, it’s like an early Christmas present for both of us: I get more sign-ups and you get an email from me every weekday, which means it’s really like five presents per week for you if you think about it. If you want to subscribe, all you have to do is click here and enter your email address. I promise not to spam you and I promise not to send you any inappropriate pictures or videos… unless they’re of Meyer at a restaurant in Ohio. 

Besides writing the newsletter, I also make time in my schedule to join Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson on the Pick Six podcast three days per week and you can listen to our latest show below. The reason you’re going to want to listen is because we spent 30 minutes dissecting every angle of the Jon Gruden firing and you can hear that below. 

 Alright, let’s get to the picks before I think of something else to promote. 

NFL Week 6 Picks

Miami (1-4) vs. Jacksonville (0-5) in London 

9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
-3.5

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

If I’ve noticed one thing about the Jaguars this season, it’s that they basically show up every Sunday with no offensive game plan and then I’m pretty sure they just make it up as they go along. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been working out well for them so far. Although I have to say, I shouldn’t be too surprised that their coach doesn’t show up with a game plan, because he’s clearly too busy doing other things with his weekends. 

By the way, I was definitely wrong about that whole the Jaguars “never have a game plan” thing. It turns out the Jags do have a game plan each week, it’s just one that will never work. 

To be honest, if my choices are to have no game plan or the game plan above, I think I’d just wing it and go with nothing. 

I’m not sure if anyone has let Meyer know, but a “250/250” game plan is more or less IMPOSSIBLE in the NFL. If the Jaguars were rushing for 250 yards per game, that would be the greatest rushing season in the history of the NFL. In the Super Bowl era, no team in NFL history has even averaged 225 yards per game and there have only been four teams that have even averaged 200 yards per game for an entire season. 

This basically means that Urban Meyer has been wasting all of his time trying to devise a game plan that will never work, which tells you everything you need to know about the 2021 Jaguars. 

The good news for the Jags is that if there’s one team in the NFL that’s currently more dysfunctional than them, it’s the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have been outscored this year by 76 points, which is the most in the NFL by 16 points. I know I made fun of Meyer’s offensive game-planning, but the Dolphins are arguably worse. If you told me an actual dolphin was handling the game-planning for this team, I would believe you. 

This might actually be the week where Tua Tungvailoa returns, but if he can’t play, that means Jacoby Brissett is going to play even though he’s dealing with a hamstring situation. Have you ever flown eight hours with an injury? It’s a nightmare. The injury is always at least 20 times worse when you land and Brissett will be flying for eight hours since this game is in London. 

The game presents a true dilemma for me: I’ll hate myself if I pick the Jaguars, but I’ll also hate myself if I pick the Dolphins, so since this is a lose-lose situation for me, I’m taking the Jags because England is the only country on earth where they’re actually good at winning games. 

The pick: Jaguars 23-20 over Dolphins

Cincinnati (3-2) at Detroit (0-5)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals
-3.5

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

If you’re wondering what it’s like to be a Lions fan this season, just watch every torture scene in all three Hostel movies and you’ll have a good idea of what they’ve been through this year. The Lions have lost two games this season on field goals of 50 or more yards on the final play, which is notable, because they’re the ONLY  team NFL history that’s ever lost multiple games in the same season on a field goal of 50 or more yards as time expired. The Lions have two of these losses through five weeks. Before this year, no team had ever had two in an ENTIRE season. 

It’s almost ironic that Lions coach Dan Campbell mentioned biting off knee caps in his introductory press conference, because I have to say, having your knee caps bitten off would likely be less painful than going through the season that the Lions are going through. 

There is no team in the NFL that’s better at playing horribly for three straight quarters before making a miraculous run at the end of the game, only to have their soul ripped out. The Lions might be 0-5, but they’ve either had the lead or been within one score of the lead in the fourth quarter in four of their five games. 

The problem with picking this game is that both of these teams are coming off emotional losses and I’m not sure how either one is going to respond. The Lions might respond to Sunday’s loss by losing this game by 40 or they might respond by upsetting the Bengals. The Bengals might respond to Sunday’s loss by blowing out Detroit or they might respond by not winning a game for the rest of the season. I HAVE NO IDEA. 

The only thing I do know is that the Bengals have played five games this season and four of them have been decided by exactly three points, so I’m going to go ahead and stick with that theme. 

The pick: Bengals 20-17 over Lions

Kansas City (2-3) at Washington (2-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-7

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

We are six weeks into the season and I still have yet to pick a Washington game correctly. Through five weeks, I’m 0-5 picking their games and every week I get slightly more irritated by the fact that I can’t pick any of their games correctly. I’m also irritated by the fact that I think I now have to watch “Smurfs 2” 11 straight times this week for losing a bet with myself over last week’s pick. 

The wrong picks are getting out of hand and I’m probably going to be ranting about it a lot until I actually get one right so you guys should actually be hoping that I eventually get one right. 

  • In Week 1, I picked Washington to beat the Chargers. In that game, they were actually winning 16-13 in the fourth quarter, but then lost. 
  • In Week 2, I picked the Giants to beat Washington. In that game, the Giants were winning 29-27 with three seconds left, but then JUMPED OFFSIDES on a game-winning field goal attempt that missed, which allowed Washington to retry the kick and win. 
  • In Week 3, I somehow convinced myself that Washington could beat the Bills. My 18-month-old daughter could have picked this game correctly, however, I did not. This is the one Washington pick I’m still embarrassed about. 
  • In Week 4, I picked the Falcons to beat Washington. The Falcons were winning 30-22 with four minutes left, but somehow lost, which I guess shouldn’t have been that surprising since no team knows how to choke away a fourth quarter lead quite like the Falcons. 
  • In Week 5, I picked Washington to beat the Saints and I knew that pick was going down the toilet as soon as the Saints hit a Hail Mary right before halftime. 

I mean, look at this play. WHAT IS GOING ON HERE? ARE THE END ZONES MADE OF QUICK SAND?? WHY DIDN’T ANY WASHINGTON DEFENDER JUMP FOR THE BALL? 

With Washington playing the Chiefs this week, I want to say I feel good about the streak ending, but I don’t feel good at all. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in football and Patrick Mahomes is turning the ball over like he’s been possessed by the ghost of Blake Bortles, who isn’t even technically a ghost yet, because he’s still alive. 

Sorry for jinxing your team, Chiefs fans, but I have no choice. 

The pick: Chiefs 34-24 over Washington

L.A. Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore (4-1)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens
-3

Powered by Caesars Sportsbook

I used to think Patrick Mahomes was Patrick Mahomes, but now i’m starting to think that Justin Herbert is the new Patrick Mahomes. I’m not saying Herbert is the best quarterback in the NFL right now, but you could certainly make that argument without getting laughed out of the room. Also, I know of at least one two-time Super Bowl winning coach who would take Herbert over any other quarterback in the NFL right now. 

My main takeaway from that video is that Jimmy Johnson has amazing hair for a 78-year-old. I am now hoping that my hair looks just half as good as his at that age. I’m guessing Herbert’s hair is half the reason Johnson likes him so much. 

Not only does Herbert have nice hair, but he’s also been unstoppable over the past three weeks. From Week 3 to Week 5, the Chargers have gone 3-0 and a big reason for that is because Herbert has thrown for 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions while averaging 300.3 yards per game. 

The Ravens have struggled to stop the pass this year so let’s not rule out the possibility that Herbert throws for 700 yards. Of course, the Chargers have struggled to stop the run, so this game is going to give us two defenses that can’t stop what the other team’s offense does well, which means we’re getting a shootout. 

The pick: Chargers 34-31 over Ravens

Arizona (5-0) at Cleveland (3-2)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-2.5

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As the only undefeated team left in the NFL, the Cardinals have obviously been playing well so far this year, but If they’ve had one huge issue during their 5-0 start, it’s that they can’t stop the run. Through five weeks, the Cardinals are giving up 139 yards per game on the ground, which is the fifth-most in the NFL. The Cardinals also are surrendering 5.4 yards per carry, which is the second-most in the NFL. 

When you can’t stop the run, the last team you want to be facing is the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are averaging 187.6 yards rushing per game this year, which not only ranks first in the NFL, but it’s first by a mile (No other team is even above 175).  

After three and a a half years of Baker Mayfield, I still have no idea what to make of him, but for this game, I don’t think it’s going to matter whether he’s good or bad, because if the Browns are smart, they won’t throw a single pass. If I’m Kevin Stefanski, I rip out the portion of my playbook that has passing plays and I set it on fire this week. I then tell Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt that they will be carrying the ball 50 times each. 

If the Browns get their run game going, that means eating up time off the clock, which means fewer possessions for Kyler Murray, which means fewer points for the Cardinals.  

I think the Cardinals undefeated season is going to end in Ohio, which is kind of fitting if you think about it because the state bird there is a cardinal. 

I ask myself that question every day, Matthew. 

The pick: Browns 30-27 over Cardinals

NFL Week 6 picks: All the rest

Buccaneers 30-23 over Eagles
Packers 27-20 over Bears
Cowboys 24-17 over Patriots
Rams 30-16 over Giants
Colts 27-24 over Texans
Vikings 22-19 over Panthers
Broncos 27-17 over Raiders
Steelers 23-16 over Seahawks
Bills 37-30 over Titans

BYES: Falcons, Saints, Jets, 49ers

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Chargers would win a wild game over the Browns and guess what happened? The Chargers won a wild game over the Browns. Now, did I know that the Browns were going to get hosed over by multiple terrible officiating calls including one that might go down as the worst pass interference penalty in NFL history? 

Of course, I knew that was going to happen. If there’s one thing I’ve learned about the Browns, it’s that they’ve never had a call go their way in the history of their franchise. As a matter of fact, I’m 40% sure Roger Goodell has a button in his office that he presses whenever he wants a ref to screw over the Browns and based on Sunday’s game, he got a little trigger-happy with that button. 

Worst pick: The New York Jets can barely win a game in our country, so I have no idea why I picked them to win a game in another country last week. For some reason, I thought they would be able to beat the Falcons in London. Five minutes into the game, I realized the Jets had no chance to win, which I guess is pretty standard for a Jets game. Thankfully, no one has to watch the Jets play this week and that’s because they’re on a bye. As for the Falcons, the NFL needs to send them to London every year and that’s mainly because something ridiculous always happens every time they go abroad. This year, they forgot their kicking net. Before that, the last time they made the trip was in 2014 and I don’t think they even knew they were in London that year. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I’m actually good at picking, here’s a quick look: 

Teams I’m 5-0 picking this year: Texans, Jaguars, Broncos, Buccaneers, 49ers, Colts. 

Teams I’m 0-5 picking this year: Washington, Saints. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 5: 12-4 (12-3 picking games that didn’t involve the Saints or Washington)
SU overall: 53-27 (53-18 picking games that didn’t involve the Saints or Washington)

Against the spread in Week 5: 9-6-1
ATS overall: 39-38-1

IMPORTANT NOTE: Ryan Wilson is an absurd 54-23-3 against the spread this year and if you want to know which teams he’s picking to win in Week 6, then be sure to click here. I know what you’re thinking and yes, I have thought about copying his picks, but apparently, he knows I’m thinking about it, so he hides them from me. 

Exact score predictions: 1
Exact score, wrong winner: 2


You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he’s not doing one of those things, he’s probably on the phone with his kicking net guy trying to make sure that every team has a kicking net for Week 6.

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